Why War With Iran is Insane!

Normally I don't write diaries. Actually this is my first time. I was getting ready to email my mother one day about Zarqawi's death being celebrated and suicides at Gitmo being called a PR stunt and an act of war, when suddenly this came out instead.
Just when you thought these nutcases had gone too far they are getting ready to go even further. According to a former CIA analyst the US is moving forces into the Persian Gulf to give us the option of attacking Iran. If we truly are getting ready to attack Iran it proves that we are undoubtedly being led by a bunch of madmen and one madwoman. It is as if we are all on one big bus and the driver is drunk and rumors around Washington are that Bush has fallen off the wagon. Launching the war in Iraq has been one of our greatest foreign policy blunders in US history but attacking Iran would make this war seem quaint.
Many will argue that the US isn't really thinking about attacking Iran because of our latest actions. They will say, "See the Bush administration has opened up dialogue with the country for the first time in 27 years. It is unprecedented." This undertaking, by Bush, is merely a way to show the world that we tried everything in order to stave off this war but those Iranian are nuts. (They are Muslims remember) It is similar to when Bush went to the UN Security Council one last time, before the start of The War in Iraq, to prove that at least he tried to work multilaterally.
I know this is going to sound a wee bit cynical but this world has led me in that direction. Is it possible that Bush knows that the US Congress is most likely going to fall into the hands of the Democrats this fall? If and when this happens the Democrats will take over leadership positions in Congress and control the agenda. With this new power the Democrats will launch investigation after investigation into the Bush Administration. From Katrina to the intelligence leading up to Iraq to the billions of dollars unaccounted for in Iraq to, shit there are so many reasons and Karl Rove knows it. Many may argue that no person would use such an exercise just to stay in power. If so ask yourself this one, why did this administration hold the vote to authorize the use of force against Iraq right before the 2002-midterm elections? It wasn't like the Congress couldn't have waited until after the elections but then Republicans would have been unable to use a Democrat's vote against it in their campaign commercials. With Condee and Dick running around saying that the "smoking gun may come in the form of a mushroom cloud over one of our major cities" it wasn't like people were purposely and unnecessarily scared, as irrational as it all was. The resolution was simply a political ploy and 2500 Americans are dead as a result, like the pawns they are considered.
Okay now here is a little exercise. Just look at a map of the region for a moment because this is very important for two reasons. The reason or pretext for the launch of this war is that Iran is trying to acquire nuclear weapons. Even though the Iranians have stated clearly that they have no intention to build weapons, lets just say they are lying. (Personally I think that they are trying to give themselves the option to do so in the future.) Here is where that map comes in. If you look to the east of Iran you have Afghanistan and about 30,000 US combat troops. If you look to the west the US has 130,000 combat troops. Now look north to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan where the US has Air Force bases in both of those countries. Finally to the south is the Persian Gulf with the Fifth Fleet's Navy ships and probably nuclear subs circling below the water's surface. Now I don't know about you but if I had a hostile enemy, with the world's largest military, surrounding me and I was rich in oil and gas, I would do something to attempt to balance the power. Only a pacifist would be stupid enough to not consider such an option.
So that was one important reason for our map but I said there would be two. Okay now just take a broad look at the region. Head east for a moment and we have Pakistan, a country with a large fundamentalist Islamic population, nuclear weapons, an unelected military ruler whose life has been nearly taken numerous times. Now just imagine if the region got so unstable that the military ruler was replaced with Al-Queda sympathizers with nukes. Would this extreme regime nuke India finally? If so India would launch nukes back. Killing millions upon millions.
Now move slowly to the west from Pakistan and we come upon Afghanistan. Here in Afghanistan, as I said earlier, we have some 30,000 troops that would be a prime target for Iran. This would make the Taliban resistance that much stronger making a victory, if it were even possible, nearly impossible. So it is very likely that the Taliban would come to power only to ally themselves with a fundamentalist Pakistan, with Nukes.
Head north from Iran for a moment and you find Russia in a war against jihadists in Chechnya. Now you can understand why Russia would veto action against Iran because it would make their efforts in Chechnya, which I abhor, that much more hellish. Most likely Russia would have to increase its military presence in the area. Thus expanding the war into a whole other arena, the Caucasus Mountains.
Then there are our troops in Iraq. The moment we attack Iran the border between it and Iraq becomes meaningless. It is a well-known fact that many Iraqi Shia leaders hid out in Iran during the rule of Saddam and that many Iranians are loyal to the land of Iraq because many of its most important religious shrines are there. By attacking Iran we would risk inflaming a mostly restive and pro-American, for the time being, population. Thus making the war in Iraq a much messier problem for our soldiers. Now they would have to concentrate on the whole country instead of just the Sunni TriangleTM?. Yet the whole thing is about to get much much worse.
Shia Muslims, the majority in Iran, are also in Saudi Arabia and are located primarily in the northeast, bordering Iraqi's Shia, in the oil rich region of Saudi Arabia. One of the biggest power struggles in the area has been who is going to be the main player in the region with Iran and Saudi Arabia doing the battling. So I am sure it wouldn't one bit bother Iran to attack Saudi Arabia itself. Remember too that Iran has conventional missiles that can reach Saudi Arabia's largest refineries. If they were to attack the refineries, which they have stated they will, it would plunge the world's economy into at least a terrible recession if not depression. It was a depression that started WWII.
Then there is Israel. Israel would be attacked immediately the moment our Government attacks Iran. Now with missiles raining down on Tel Aviv, Jerusalem is too sacred to Islam, how does Israel restrain itself? It refuses to restrain itself against rock throwing boys so why would they not just go ballistic on Iran, maybe even literally since they are a nuclear power? So what would Israel do? First off they would have to take out Syria because Hezbollah is stationed there and would be attacking from the north. Would then Syria get involved? It isn't that they are very capable but at this point what other choice would they have?
So now we have Israel and Syria involved. With Syria and Iran both attacking Israel, the US would have intervene to help Israel by attacking Syria. Syria would respond by attacking US forces in Iraq while attacking Israel at the same time. Israel would probably decapitate Syria as quickly as possible maybe by nuking them. It isn't like Israel will be able to stop at Syria while missiles are raining down on Haifa. Most likely too is that Iran has chemical weapons unlike Iraq. If Iran attacked Israel with chemical weapons the Israeli military would go nuts on Iran. Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons not to mention chemical and biological weapons.
So basically the result would be a smoldering pile of rubble that used to be called the Middle East. With Asia sizzling from India to Israel the oil would stop flowing. The entire world would be in dire straits and America is part of that world. Without Middle Eastern Oil the world's economy would come to a screeching halt.
The most interesting aspect of this scenario is it is the same as the Christian's Armageddon right before the second coming of Christ. Tim Lahaye's "Left Behind" series starts with an attack from Iran against Israel. The sect in Christianity that truly believes this will happen are WASPs more specifically the born again evangelical community. Some thirty percent of Americans believe in the bible literally and, I would believe, the President is one of them. Many of those same people subscribe to the notion of the rapture. Our country is going completely and utterly insane. Which leads me to believe that we must sneak up and remove the bus driver otherwise we are all going to die.